Process Older textbooks distinguish between the term risk analysis and risk evaluation; a risk analysis includes the following 4 steps: • establish the context, which
restricts the range of hazards to be considered.
It contains; Risks Potential response Root cause of risks Risk categories and ranking A risk register (PRINCE2) is a document used as a risk management tool and to fulfill
regulatory compliance acting as a repository for all risks identified and includes additional information about each risk, e.g., nature of the risk, reference and owner, mitigation measures.
Consequences: Impact of Risk Event (I) In Risk based internal auditing two types of risks are considered.
When risk analysis and risk evaluation are made at the same time, it is called risk assessment.
When risk assessment is used for public health or environmental decisions, the loss can be quantified in a common metric such as a country’s currency or some numerical measure
of a location’s quality of life.
Risk-based internal audit (RBIA) is an internal methodology which is primarily focused on the inherent risk involved in the activities or system and provide assurance that
risk is being managed by the management within the defined risk appetite level.
To see the risk management process expressed mathematically, one can define total risk as the sum over individual risks, , which can be computed as the product of potential
losses, , and their probabilities, : Even though for some risks , we might have , if the probability is small compared to , its estimation might be based only on a smaller number of prior events, and hence, more uncertain.
Population risks are of more use for cost/benefit analysis; individual risks are of more use for evaluating whether risks to individuals are “acceptable”.
Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences.
 The process of risk assessment may be somewhat informal at the individual social level, assessing economic and household risks, or a sophisticated process at the
strategic corporate level.
A common error in risk assessment and management is to underestimate the wildness of risk, assuming risk to be mild when in fact it is wild, which must be avoided if risk
assessment and management are to be valid and reliable, according to Mandelbrot.
 A typical risk register contains: • A risk category to group similar risks • The risk breakdown structure identification number • A brief description or
name of the risk to make the risk easy to discuss • The impact (or consequence) if event actually occurs rated on an integer scale • The probability or likelihood of its occurrence rated on an integer scale • The Risk Score (or Risk Rating)
is the multiplication of Probability and Impact and is often used to rank the risks.
 Risk assessment Allows an entity to understand the possibility and impact of risk event.
Contingency – the budget allocated to the contingent response Trigger – an event that itself results in the risk event occurring (for example the risk event might be “flooding”
and “heavy rainfall” the trigger) Criticism Although risk registers are commonly used tools not only in projects and programs but also in companies, research has found that they can lead to dysfunctions, for instance Toyota’s risk register
listed reputation risks caused by Prius’ malfunctions but the company failed to take action.
Dynamic risk assessment During an emergency response, the situation and hazards are often inherently less predictable than for planned activities (non-linear).
 • More precisely, risk assessment identifies and analyses potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e.
Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment.
: 10 At the strategic corporate level, management involved with the project produce project level risk assessments with the assistance of the available expertise as part
of the planning process and set up systems to ensure that required actions to manage the assessed risk are in place.
ISO 31000:2009 does not use the term risk register, however it does state that risks need to be documented.
Some charge that assessments may drop out important non-quantifiable or inaccessible information, such as variations among the classes of people exposed to hazards, or social
It provides the threshold of acceptable risk and determining the risk appetite is continuous process, it can’t be set once and leave.
A risk evaluation means that judgements are made on the tolerability of the identified risks, leading to risk acceptance.
 Sometimes risks can be deemed acceptable, meaning the risk “is understood and tolerated … usually because the cost or difficulty of implementing an effective countermeasure
for the associated vulnerability exceeds the expectation of loss.
 Dynamic risk assessment is the final stage of an integrated safety management system that can provide an appropriate response during changing circumstances.
It also makes judgments “on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of a risk analysis” while considering influencing factors (i.e.
“ Mild versus wild risk Benoit Mandelbrot distinguished between “mild” and “wild” risk and argued that risk assessment and risk management must be fundamentally
different for the two types of risk.
In that case, the “risk” is expressed as If the risk estimate takes into account information on the number of individuals exposed, it is termed a “population risk” and is
in units of expected increased cases per time period.
At the dynamic level, the personnel directly involved may be required to deal with unforeseen problems in real time.
Inherent risk Risk that existed in the absence of any action or control or modification of an event.
In these cases, ongoing risk assessment by the involved personnel can advise appropriate action to reduce risk.
At the individual level, identifying objectives and risks, weighing their importance, and creating plans, may be all that is necessary.
 Systems risk assessment Risk assessment can also be made on a much larger systems theory scale, for example assessing the risks of an ecosystem or an interactively
complex mechanical, electronic, nuclear, and biological system or a hurricane (a complex meteorological and geographical system).
 Categories Individual risk assessment Risk assessments can be done in individual cases, including in patient and physician interactions.
 HM Fire Services Inspectorate has defined dynamic risk assessment (DRA) as: The continuous assessment of risk in the rapidly changing circumstances of an operational
incident, in order to implement the control measures necessary to ensure an acceptable level of safety.
Use two prospectives; • Likelihood: Probability of risk event (P) • Consequences: Impact of risk event (I) • Risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood
and consequences, and the tolerances for such events.
RBIA allows internal audit to provide assurance to the board that risk management processes are managing risks effectively, in relation to the risk appetite.
However, in both cases, ability to anticipate future events and create effective strategies for mitigating them when deemed unacceptable is vital.
 In the narrow sense chemical risk assessment is the assessment of a health risk in response to environmental exposures.
On the other hand, since , must be larger than , so decisions based on this uncertainty would be more consequential, and hence, warrant a different approach.
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Photo credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/mitho/7502389724/’]